What Is ‘Optimism Bias’?
Optimism bias is the tendency of an individual to overestimate the likelihood of positive events and underestimate the possibility of negative events. I see it all the time in writers, who may feel their masterpiece novel or screenplay will get picked up right away … and when they don’t, they get VERY downhearted.
All of us are vulnerable to optimism bias, by the way. It’s very easy to get carried away and imagine our futures accepting Oscars, seeing our books on shelves, our TV shows on Netflix, or movie posters in our mind’s eye!
What’s more, there’s absolutely nothing wrong with daydreaming like this … as long as we temper it with a healthy dose of realism. But how do we do this? Let’s go …
STEP #1: Assess the opportunities
If we want to make sure optimism bias does not kill our chances, we need to assess what opportunities we have, eg …
- Not a lot of time for networking? Maybe a novel is a better idea than a screenplay
- Or maybe you want to work on IP (‘intellectual property’) & transmedia? Again, a novel might be a great start for you
- Keen on making movies? Then perhaps you should start with a short film as a proof of concept
- Want to work in TV? Then maybe you should look at various shadow schemes, initiatives & contests
- Understand the filmmaking industry? Then look for ways of making your low-budget film a reality
- Want to get into publishing? Then consider the top genres, which are romance and crime/thriller!
You can see what’s achievable and focus your energy on projects with real potential. Unlike those who overestimate their chances, you allocate time and effort efficiently, which is crucial in competitive fields.
Remember, this is not about ‘selling out’, but SELLING. It’s possible to write stuff you love AND attract readers or viewers!
MORE: What Do I Do If My Book Or Script Is A ‘Hard Sell’?
STEP # 2: Make Sure You Take Strategic Risks
As I always say on this blog: there’s no rules to break, just risks to take. Being grounded doesn’t mean avoiding risk altogether. Instead, it means taking calculated risks rather than chasing unlikely breakthroughs.
So every time you come up with a new project idea, ask yourself …
- Where will this take me? The more intentional you are, the more likely you will get what you want.
- What projects are ‘like’ mine? Comparables are key. If you can’t find ANY like yours and it may be a red flag that nobody wants yours.
- What did they do for their creators? Very important: check out projects from the last 1-5 years maximum.
- Where am I on the ‘timeline’? This is particularly important. Too early and your project may fail to make a splash. Too late and it may feel stale and clichéd!
- How does this fit into my creative plan? Like the old saying goes, ‘failure to plan is planning to fail’. Make sure you set concrete goals and evalauate them accordingly.
The above allows you to experiment and innovate without risking your career. What’s not to like?
STEP #3: Cultivate Resilience and Adaptability
True realists are often better at handling setbacks because they anticipate challenges. Nothing ever goes smoothly in life, after all! Add creativity to the mix and literally anything can happen.
So expect setbacks … but don’t be pessimistic. Creatives very often get negative because they think that will help them avoid optimism bias. NOPE! All pessimism does is make you feel down, which in turn ALSO helps kill your chances! Eeek!
That is why resilience and adaptability is SO important. Hoping for the best doesn’t automatically mean being naive. Like most things, it’s all about balance. Plus, don’t forget you can pivot when necessary, which keeps your career sustainable and growing as well.
STEP #4: Create Effective Networking & Collaboration Opportunities For Yourself
I always say creatives should understand their own industries. Whether you’re an author or a screenwriter (or both!), understanding HOW stories get published or produced is key to success.
Optimism bias means too many creatives wait for luck to strike … and guess what happens nine times out of ten? That’s right: NOTHING!
But by understanding the practical realities of the industry, you’re more likely to make things happen. You will be able to seek out the right mentors, collaborators, and opportunities yourself.
STEP #5: Become Credible & Professional
The bottom line is industry pros trust creatives who deliver consistent results and meet realistic expectations. Credibility is so important in the industry. The publishing and filmmaking industries are hard work. This means industry pros only want to work with reliable people!
Behaving professionally is also important, especially on social media. When agents, publishers and producers Google names, you do not want to lose out on jobs thanks to your TwiX, Facebook, IG or TikTok! That’s why I always recommend writers do not become their own worst enemies online.
Last Points
Enacting these five steps will help you a great deal in your writing deal. While being optimistic (and not pessimistic!) IS a good idea, make sure you don’t fall into optimism bias.
Being realistic when you work in the creative arts can be a major advantage. It allows you to work smarter, build a sustainable career, and avoid common traps that trap hopeful dreamers.
Good Luck!
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